All Heat, But Some Light Too 07/28/2009

Posted by Mike Zahara on Jul 27, 2009

Summer in the city and silly season in the media erupts.  This summer is unusual in that there is some actual activity on Capitol Hill trying to move the president’s agenda forward, and that’s resulted in a media pile-on on him.

Some are already writing off his presidency!  When they’re bored, they’re really bored.

That’s too funny, but Sunday’s R-J and LV Sun had two interesting reads.  The R-J reprinted the piece from Reason via the Washington Post, which is really good, and I think a fair a critique.

The president knows virtually nothing in his agenda can survive now; he needed all this passed in the first 90 days—last year, I gave him until October of this year to get anything accomplished, remember?—once that open window closes, he will cover his own ass and kick Congress to the curb to save it.

Trust me, Uncle Harry knows this too.

Obama understands the value in corralling his own party before an election regardless of who may fall in the process and he’s open to using his veto pen against his own party.

He won’t veto healthcare, but he will be delighted when Dems in both Houses fall like timber when they include things like healthcare for illegal/undocumented, elective abortion etc…; the lefties have the votes to include those items, but now we have to wait to see if Obama signals to de facto Senate Majority Leader, Sen Evan Bayh, what, if anything, will move forward.

We Dems are terrible with majorities. Dems always need a bogeyman, someone/something to rail against in order to be successful.  When we’re in majority, our over-reach is extreme and America always pushes back hardalways.  LBJ got us Nixon, Carter got us Reagan, Clinton got us Bush, and Obama will get us a GOPer in 2016 too.

It’s the natural order of the universe.

So, the president wants to cull the herd in his own party, and he’s cold and surgically calculating enough to do it.

Watching that develop is the real story here.

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The other story was Jon Ralston’s Sunday column.  We politicos have been repeating this story about Sen Harry Reid because despite all of the fire breathing, the money, and the saber-rattling, he remains the easiest person to knock off in 2010 by anyone other than Sharon Angle who is a frumpy, grumpy, and dumpy twit.

But, to paraphrase 19th century Scottish critic Andrew Lang a bit, we’re ‘using Reid scenarios like drunken men use lamp posts; for support rather than illumination.’ Every political observer covets seeing Harry Reid go down, and go down very badly.  I can tell you from first hand experience that there is little more satisfying in political life than defeating a sitting United States Senator! And the stars are aligning to send Harry Reid to retirement in 15 months.

I think the developing story here is Rep Dean Heller though.  I had thought he was being cutsie and coy in his vacillation about whether he will move up the food chain, until I started assessing his votes this session.  He may surprise us all by actually taking on Harry Reid!

And if you’re a credible GOP challenger, you keep your mouth shut and your options open until the last possible moment.  Why would you announce prematurely and have those millions firing at you too early?

Each of Dean Heller’s 2009 votes is a telegraphing of a potential US Senate candidacy, designed to shore up his bona fides within his own party.  That he authored the bill that would have barred illegals/undocumented from healthcare legislation is the GOP play book chapter and verse.

That was no accidental proposal and no accident that he was the credited author even if he didn’t actually write it.

Again, that defeated proposal alone elects him a US Senator. How did the Dems in the US House allow that to come to a vote in committee?  They could have gummed that up for weeks and months and denied Heller a vote in multiple ways.  Did the uber-lefties deliberately engineer this knowing full well the enormous damage it would do to Reid in 2010 from a bill with Dean Heller’s name on it?

Just consider the ad copy:  Harry Reid wants to give illegals free healthcare and give you the bill…Dean Heller said no.

They all hate Harry Reid on the far left and it is a delicious possibility to consider, isn’t it? Being the Dem SML, and being LDS, anti-woman, anti-choice, anti-union, anti-gay and anti-gay marriage will have consequences from the national lefties for the fine senator from the great state of Nevada in 2010; Senator Richard Durbin will personally ensure that.

The lefties want him as SML, yesterday, and Durbin has had the votes since 2007.

Is Heller responding to the seduction of a gigantic blank check and national hero status for taking on Harry Reid?  I wasn’t sure a few months ago, but now I think he may be.  You’ll note that he hasn’t said either way, or announced his candidacy for re-election. The toughest decision for a guy who has a House seat for life, as Heller does (he scared Dem Cindy Trigg right out of the race the other day), is not the trepidation in taking on a behemoth like Reid—that’s very easy—but to giving up that guaranteed seat and all the perqs that go with it, is the tough part.  That’s why Rochelle-y and Dina will never take on Sen John Ensign—their egos won’t ever permit their losing their ‘sure thing’.

There’s less than a 10% chance that he would lose to Reid, but on that off chance, Heller can walk in as a full partner to any GOP law/lobbying firm in the country, with an enormous salary and all the benefits therein.  The GOP knows how to take care of their heroes.

Any credible Republican beats Reid so long as they have a nice smile, and a pleasant disposition.  16 of 17 Nevada counties are permanently gone for Harry Reid, and immigration and abortion knock down his pluralities coming out of Clark County, considerably.

Should Heller take the bait, the power-brokers here will have no choice but to hedge their bets and fill Heller’s coffers too, and the state will be in political upheaval because there’s not a credible person in this state that doesn’t know that Dean Heller is our next US Senator should he run.

I think Assemblyman Ty Cobb could take CD02 in a landslide (there are signs he’s being groomed for higher office today) should Heller move up; another consideration in Mrs Trigg’s decision to drop out?

Dean Heller could also be the first Republican to put Clark County into play in more than a generation, that’s how badly Harry Reid is universally reviled in his own state.

Heller knows it, the big boys and girls in the GOP and Dems know it—Harry & Rory Reid know it too—and that may be the political seduction that Rep Dean Heller simply cannot refuse.

The longer Dean Heller stays quite, the more likely it is that he will challenge Sen Harry Reid in 2010 and we’ll know for sure later this year.

Now, there’s some illumination for you!

Mike Zahara Siganture


Mike Zahara

07282009

www.WatchDogWag.com